SCENARIOS & EVIDENCE
Separate possibility from proof.
AI loss-of-control likelihood, nature and timing remain uncertain. Discussion of severe outcomes does not establish that an apocalypse is certain.
Use scenarios to examine assumptions and evidence, not as predictions. Read the International AI Safety Report 2026 executive summary or full report for the source’s own framing.
Contact page
Illustrative still life—not evidence.
01 / SCENARIO OR PREDICTION?
A scenario asks “what if?”
Scenario planning traces a possible chain of events to examine dependencies, assumptions and potential consequences. It does not, by itself, estimate how likely that chain is.
A prediction makes a claim about what may happen, often with a likelihood or time horizon. Assess it separately: examine evidence, method, assumptions and uncertainty. Detail is not certainty.
02 / CHECK THE SOURCE
Ask concrete questions before sharing a claim.
- Who says this? Identify author and organization.
- What supports it? Trace the evidence to its source.
- What is observed, and what is inferred? Keep evidence distinct from interpretation.
- Which assumptions matter? Check what conclusion depends on.
- What remains unknown? Look for limits, disagreement and uncertainty.
- Is it in context? Read beyond headline or excerpt.
These questions support review; they do not automatically verify claims.
03 / ILLUSTRATIVE PATHWAYS
Possible disruption paths are prompts, not forecasts.
These hypothetical examples show how planning might examine dependencies. They make no claim about likelihood, timing or a specific event.
A digital service becomes unavailable; a household reviews which routines depend on it.
Information is difficult to assess; people consider how to distinguish verified updates from unsupported claims.
Several dependencies change together; a planning discussion considers constraints and possible alternatives.
Illustrative scenarios only—not forecasts, evidence of occurrence or operational instructions.
04 / PROBABILITY & LIMITS
Absolute certainty needs evidence.
A claim of 100% certainty requires evidence that rules out relevant alternatives—not merely a vivid example or strong conviction. In complex, uncertain domains, evidence and methods have limits that matter.
This page assigns no probability to AI loss of control and does not present “P(Doom)=100” as fact. The linked report is research context, not a business guarantee or proof that an outcome is certain.
Read report executive summary05 / CLAIM-REVIEW WORKSHEET
Review one claim, without an automated verdict.
Use these fields as personal notes. This worksheet does not check sources, store answers or label claims true or false.
This page does not submit or save notes. Browser settings may restore form values; use the browser’s print command for a paper copy.
06 / FAQ & FURTHER READING
Keep questions open to evidence.
Explore planning and published material with uncertainty in view.
Does scenario planning mean a scenario will happen?
No. A scenario describes a possible pathway for analysis; it is not proof, a forecast or a probability estimate by itself.
Does the linked report establish certainty?
The report is a research source, not a business claim or proof that a particular outcome is certain. Read it directly to assess its scope and stated limitations.
How should I treat a claim of absolute certainty?
Ask what evidence supports it, which alternatives were considered, what assumptions are involved and whether conclusion exceeds evidence.